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player ready...It is a measure of the economic uneasiness gripping the world that fears about the spread of swine flu could do more economic damage than the virus itself.
As swine flu swept from Mexico to the United States and elsewhere in the last few days, concerns rose about the prospect of another SARS-style global outbreak. Experienced hands look at the trends, though, and say the tools to fight this outbreak are far more advanced than before, and the global system for fighting diseases just might keep pace with the havoc.
Why the progress? The same global networking effects that can make diseases a threat also can become a tool in fighting them.
SARS, or the bird flu, can jump international borders at the speed of a transcontinental flight. But global e-mail alerts and Webcasts can empower the flu fighters to stop them.
Diseases seem to mutate faster than ever. Yet, so does our ability to respond. Modern, cell-based production of antiviral vaccines has cut the development and production cycle nearly in half. Now that flu shots can come from laboratories, there is less need to stockpile eggs, inject the embryos with an antivirus and wait weeks for it to grow.
It’s still too early to tell which will move faster, the disease or the remedies. Nearly 150 people are dead in Mexico, and 1,995 more are ill. Several dozen non-fatal cases are now reported in the U.S., new and suspected cases have shown up in a half dozen other countries.
But as swine flu tries to spread on the wings of airplanes, public health authorities have learned from past experience. Those who watched SARS spread quickly in a globalized world learned monitoring and containment techniques that are practices today. Vietnam’s response to the bird flu outbreak of 2005 showed that effective reporting and immediate testing can help keep matters under control.
Public health campaigns around the world have raised awareness of the need to cull herds of infected animals. People seem to better understand the impact of simple steps, such as hand washing and isolation of the ill.
“We know that exposure to Mexico is a risk, so we can do targeted surveillance of people who have been there,” said Marie Gramer, a University of Minnesota veterinarian who has studied swine flu. “Comparisons with other outbreaks are not really fair because we’re so much better equipped to handle this one.”
Even so, with panic alarms sounding, the economic fallout has begun. Even if the swine flu outbreak falls far short of pandemic, the global impact still might turn stomachs. The European Union health commissioner has warned against non-essential travel to Mexico and parts of the U.S. Russia has restricted meat imports from Mexico, and the U.S. State Department has warned against travel to parts of Mexico.
Economists say airlines may get clobbered as fear spreads. An already weak economy may take yet another hit. Stock markets around the world have swooned on fears over the impact on travel, food, finance and other sectors.
Even if the swine flu outbreak of 2009 soon comes under control, it’s clear the virus already is infecting a frail global economy.
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