The Democratic presidential race has always been about numbers – how much money has been raised and how many delegates have been won.
But as Barack Obama’s delegate lead has grown and as the number of remaining contests has dwindled, Hillary Clinton’s campaign has cited other numbers: the uncounted votes in Florida and Michigan, the popular vote totals across the United States and the poll numbers on how she would do against John McCain in the fall versus how Obama would fare.
The numbers have added up to a confusing jumble that is likely to be ironed out in the next week.
First, the Democratic National Committee’s Rules and Bylaws Committee will meet Saturday in Washington to consider what to do about Florida and Michigan, two states that lost all their delegates because they violated the party?s calendar rules.
Then, on Sunday, Puerto Rico votes. On Tuesday come the last of the primaries-in Montana and South Dakota. Because of the proportional way the delegates are awarded, even if Clinton does well in all three contests, Obama will move close to achieving a majority of delegates.
After that, many of the remaining uncommitted superdelegates are expected to make their wishes known. By this time next week, the Democrats could well have their presumptive nominee.
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Michigan and Florida
These states lost all representation at the Democratic National Convention because they violated party rules by moving up on the calendar. This was known well in advance of the primaries, and candidates agreed not to campaign in either state.
Both Clinton and Obama were on the ballot in Florida, and Clinton won handily.
In Michigan, Obama and most other candidates took their names off the ballot, but Clinton stayed on and won a majority, with “uncommitted” also getting a large portion.
Some Democratic officials have proposed splitting the delegations 50-50 or giving Clinton a slight advantage.
Democratic staff lawyers issued a memo Tuesday saying that the rules allow only half or fewer of the states’ delegates to be seated.
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The popular vote
The popular vote doesn’t count. Only the delegate totals do.
But the Clinton campaign is hoping to sway superdelegates with the argument that more Democrats have voted for her.
That’s a debatable notion that depends on whether you count Florida and Michigan, as well as whether you count estimated votes from the caucus states. Many Obama backers say Florida and Michigan shouldn’t count- especially Michigan, where Obama wasn’t even on the ballot.
Meanwhile, some Clinton supporters have discounted the caucuses as unfair, and estimates of how many people voted for whom in caucuses are just that-estimates.
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In November
Clinton said Tuesday: “You have to ask yourself, who is the stronger candidate? And based on every analysis, of every bit of research and every poll that has been taken and every state that a Democrat has to win, I am the stronger candidate against John McCain in the fall.”
Indeed, polls show Clinton running stronger in some swing states, such as Ohio and Pennsylvania. But nationally, not really.
In fact, depending on which poll is used, either Clinton or Obama could be said to be stronger against the Republican nominee.
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What really counts: The delegates
Obama is close to gaining an overall majority of delegates, but if some or all of the delegates from Florida and Michigan are seated, the goal line will move back. And even if Obama passes the majority mark, he can?t take it to the bank until the convention in late August. Superdelegates are free to change their minds in the interim. Even the elected delegates aren’t legally required to support the candidate they’re pledged to?as Clinton has pointed out.
OBAMA
1,982
Pledged:1,658
Superdelegates:324
CLINTON
1,782
Pledged:1,500
Superdelegates:282
(2,026 needed to win nomination**)
** This number would increase if delegates from Florida and Michigan are seated.
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SOURCES: RealClearPolitics.com, Associated Press, Gallup Poll
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