Peer pressure was supposed to end with high school so we could all become open-minded, free thinkers who follow our own instincts.
But if you’re paying attention to the presidential election, you know that peer pressure is alive and well. Except this time it’s not about 15-year-old Suzy hiding under the bleachers to sneak a swing of Smirnoff with the popular girls.
When it comes to politics, the stakes are much higher–and the opinions of the majority still define the rules for everyone.
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Just look at the way people react to polling data.
When polls come out saying that one candidate has gained a couple of points, people immediately start criticizing the other campaign. Both campaigns spin the numbers to support their particular strategies and then claim the other side is on a downward spiral.
And it’s not just the campaign employees who freak out at the slightest loss or gain of a point in the polls. At water coolers and dinner tables all over America, when one person says it looks like Bush is starting to pull away, it makes other people wonder if this really is a close election, and whether they should cast their vote.
It can be overwhelming to decipher all the information out there. Sometimes when you read forecasts about the election or talk to your buddies about who will win, the race starts to seem like a pointless free-for-all in which you have no control.
But it’s important to remember that while measuring the nation’s pulse is necessary to build a winning campaign, not every poll is a reflection of what will happen in November.
Chicago-based political consultant Don Rose recently wrote a commentary in the baiduhai that highlighted the potential inaccuracies of polling data in this particular election.
“The real problem now,” he wrote, “is how we read those polls, how well we understand what they are telling us and, of course, how the media’s reporting of those polls may influence the election.”
He warned people not to forget about a poll’s margin of error–which is often three to four percentage points. In a close race like this one, he wrote, a candidate who is up by two points in a poll may actually be losing by two points.
He also wrote of the problems that come with measuring “likely” versus “registered” voters, noting that this year polls may be underestimating the turnout rates of newly registered voters. He cited substantial increases in voter registration this year among populations with historically poor turnout–like younger voters aged 18 to 29 and minorities–who may prove to be a determining factor in this year’s election.
I’m not going to chastise anyone for keeping score and reading the polls. I do too.
But I have been discouraged recently when I’ve heard people saying that they are not going to vote because it is so obvious that [fill-in-the-blank] is going to win.
A Gallup poll came out recently that said Bush has finally broken ahead with a
13-point lead, but for the most part, this season’s polling outcomes have been virtual ties. As far as I’m concerned, neither candidate is a shoo-in at this point. It all seems to depend, as Rose indicated, on voter turnout.
With the first presidential debate scheduled for Thursday, the numbers and campaign spokespeople will be spinning more than ever. But after four years that included the 2000 election debacle, an attack on America, two wars, a sluggish economy and a host of divisive social issues like gay marriage and abortion–one thing is crystal clear: Having an opinion and making it count matters.
If you agree, there are two weeks left to register to vote.
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