The National Federation of Independent Business is pointing to one graphic to show why it believes 2004 may give birth to the best economy in 20 years.
Stretching from 1976 through 2003, the chart shows survey results of small-business owners’ six-month outlook for general business conditions. Peaks emerge at four points in that 27-year period, including the tail end of 2003. Recent surveys by the federation show that more business owners expect improved business conditions than at any point since the early to mid-1980s.
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“Historically, this level of optimism has always signaled the start of a strong period of economic growth,” wrote William Dunkelberg, the federation’s chief economist.
Dunkelberg also pointed out that 24 percent of business owners expect to substantially expand facilities, a level associated with good economic periods. This measure also has been building momentum, gaining 13 percentage points since April.
Overall, Dunkelberg said that while the economy can’t continue its robust third-quarter growth rate of 8 percent, he expects 2004 to come off with a healthy 4 percent growth rate.